New Head Coaches (NFL)

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New Head Coaches (NFL)

New NFL Head Coaches

For those of you that purchased the 2010 Linemaker V, this is a carry over with last year's results. I am still working on the charts, but I will have them up soon. I am doing a Q&A and applying teams that fall into a situation with reference to this season. My early analysis has Carolina as a great play against team, specially on the road. Money line looks solid if price not too high. Division games also look good to play against Carolina. I hate to label a team to early, so keep this in back of your mind till the free agency window closes and then I will re-evaluate.

The effect of “New Head Coaches” in the NFL

There have been 43 new head coaching changes since 2006. I have tracked these new head coaches to try and get some definitive answers on how they would perform in their first year. Some of the answers just might surprise you.

What percentage of new head coaches improved a team’s record in their first year?

Answer: Sixty percent of new head coaches improved a team’s record the following year. Twenty one coaches had a better record, three coaches equaled the previous year’s record and eleven coaches didn’t equal the previous year’s record.

Which coaches are more successful as a head coach in their first year coming from either an offensive background or a defensive background?

Answer: Since 2006, there have been 18 coaches with an offensive mind set and 17 defensive coaches. The offensive background coaches compiled a record of 115 wins and 173 losses for a 39.9% win margin. Defensive coaches compiled a record of 116 wins against 156 losses for a 42.6% win percentage.

Now, I’m sure your wondering about the first answer. How can 60% of new head coaches improve the previous year’s record if both offensive and defensive coaches collectively have a 41.2% win percentage?

Answer: Eleven offensive head coaches out of eighteen improved or equaled the team’s previous record and twelve defensive head coaches out of seventeen improved or equaled a team’s previous record. Defensive head coaches out perform offensive head coaches in their first year by about 10%.

How well do first year head coaches compete in their division?

Answer: New head coaches compiled a record of 93-117 against their division opponents over the last five years for a win percentage of 44.2%.

How many new head coaches went 0-6 against their division opponents?

Answer: Five new head coaches failed to win a division game, but note, four of those five were 0-6 against the division the previous year and the other was 1-5 vs. the division. Carolina was 0-6 against the division last year. Cleveland, Denver, and Minnesota went 1-5 in their divisions.

How many first year head coaches failed to win a game on the road in the last five years?

Answer: Three, Oakland (Art Shell), Miami (Cam Cameron), and Detroit ( Jim Schwartz). Oakland and Miami were 2-6, and Detroit was 0-8 the previous year. Last year Carolina was 0-8 away with Cleveland, Minnesota, 2-6, and San Francisco 1-7.

The charts list the team's previous year's record, the head coach that took over and if he was defense or offense oriented. The win record straight up follows with division record, home and away straight up and against the spread. The W/L streak is how the team ended the regular season. Point differential, which is the difference of the offense points for and defensive points allowed. Playoffs are noted and how far they went. The previous year's offensive and defensive rankings are the last two columns.

	2006	OFF		vs.	SU	SU	ATS	ATS	W/L	PT.	PLAY	OFF	DEF
TEAM	NEW COACH	DEF	REC	DIV.	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY	STREAK	DIF.	OFFS	RNK	RNK
BUF	2005		5-11	2-4	4-4	1-7	4-4	3-5	L 1	-96		28	29
BUF	D. JAURON	DEF	7-9	3-3	4-4	3-5	5-3	5-3	L 2	-11		30	18
DET	2005		5-11	1-5	3-5	2-6	4-4	5-3	L 1	-91		27	20
DET	R. MARINELLI	DEF	3-13	0-6	2-6	1-7	3-4-1	2-6	W 1	-93		22	28
GRB	2005		4-12	1-5	3-5	1-7	2-4-2	3-5	W 1	-46		18	7
GRB	M. McCARTHY	OFF	8-8	5-1	3-5	5-3	2-6	5-3	W 4	-65		9	12
HOU	2005		2-14	0-6	2-6	0-8	2-6	5-3	L 2	-171		30	31
HOU	G. KUBIAK	OFF	6-10	3-3	4-4	2-6	4-4	3-5	W 2	-99		28	24
KC	2005		10-6	4-2	7-1	3-5	7-1	3-4-1	W 2	78		1	25
KC	H. EDWARDS	DEF	9-7	4-2	6-2	3-5	5-3	3-5	W 2	16	WC	16	16
MIN	2005		9-7	5-1	6-2	3-5	6-2	3-5	W 1	-38		25	21
MIN	B. CHILDRESS	OFF	6-10	2-4	3-5	3-5	3-5	4-4	L 3	-45		23	8
NO	2005		3-13	1-5	1-6	2-7	2-4-1	3-6	L 5	-163		20	14
NO	S. PAYTON	OFF	10-6	4-2	4-4	6-2	3-5	7-1	L 1	91	CONF	1	11
NYJ	2005		4-12	2-4	4-4	0-8	5-3	1-7	W 1	-115		31	12
NYJ	E. MANGINI	DEF	10-6	4-2	4-4	6-2	5-3	6-2	W 3	21	WC	25	20
OAK	2005		4-12	0-6	2-6	2-6	2-6	3-5	L 6	-93		21	27
OAK	A. SHELL	DEF	2-14	0-6	2-6	0-8	3-5	3-5	L 9	-164		32	3
STL	2005		6-10	1-5	3-5	3-5	2-6	3-5	W 1	-66		9	30
STL	S. LINEHAM	OFF	8-8	2-4	4-4	4-4	4-4	5-3	W 3	-14		6	23

	2007	OFF		vs.	SU	SU	ATS	ATS	W/L	PT.	PLAY	OFF	DEF
TEAM	NEW COACH	DEF	REC	DIV.	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY	STREAK	DIF.	OFFS	RNK	RNK
AZ	2006		5-11	4-2	3-5	2-6	4-4	4-4	L 1	-75		18	29
AZ	K. WISENHUNT	OFF	8-8	3-3	6-2	2-6	5-3	3-4-1	W 2	5		16	17
ATL	2006		7-9	3-3	3-5	4-4	3-5	5-3	L 3	-36		12	22
ATL	B. PETRINO	OFF	4-12	1-5	3-5	1-7	3-5	5-3	W 1	-155		23	29
DAL	2006		9-7	5-1	4-4	5-3	4-4	4-3-1	L 2	75		5	13
DAL	W. PHILLIPS	DEF	13-3	4-2	6-2	7-1	5-3	4-4	L 1	130	DIV	3	9
MIA	2006		6-10	1-5	4-4	2-6	3-5	3-5	L 3	-23		20	4
MIA	C. CAMERON	OFF	1-15	0-6	1-7	0-8	2-5-1	3-3-2	L 2	-170		28	23
OAK	2006		2-14	0-6	2-6	0-8	3-5	3-5	L 9	-164		32	3
OAK	L. KIFFIN	OFF	4-12	2-4	2-6	2-6	2-6	4-4	L 4	-115		25	22
PIT	2006		8-8	3-3	5-3	3-5	5-3	2-5-1	W 1	38		7	9
PIT	M. TOMLIN	DEF	10-6	5-1	7-1	3-5	5-3	3-5	L 1	124		17	1
SAN	2006		14-2	5-1	8-0	6-2	5-3	4-4	W 10	189		4	10
SAN	N. TURNER	OFF	11-5	5-1	7-1	4-4	7-1	4-4	W 6	128	CONF	20	14

	2008	OFF		vs.	SU	SU	ATS	ATS	W/L	PT.	PLAY	OFF	DEF
TEAM	NEW COACH	DEF	REC	DIV.	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY	STREAK	DIF.	OFFS	RNK	RNK
ATL	2007		4-12	1-5	3-5	1-7	3-5	5-3	W 1	-155		23	29
ATL	M. SMITH	DEF	11-5	3-3	7-1	4-4	5-3	4-4	W 3	66	WC	6	24
BAL	2007		5-11	1-5	4-4	1-7	3-5	0-8	W 1	-109		22	6
BAL	J. HARBAUGH	DEF	11-5	4-2	6-2	5-3	6-2	6-2	W 2	141	CONF	21	2
MIA	2007		1-15	0-6	1-7	0-8	2-5-1	3-3-2	L 2	-170		28	23
MIA	T. SPARANO	OFF	11-5	4-2	5-3	6-2	2-6	6-2	W 5	28	WC	12	15
WAS	2007		9-7	3-3	5-3	4-4	3-4-1	4-3-1	W 4	24		15	8
WAS	J. ZORN	OFF	8-8	3-3	4-4	4-4	3-5	3-4-1	L 1	-31		19	4

	2009	OFF		vs.	SU	SU	ATS	ATS	W/L	PT.	PLAY	OFF	DEF
TEAM	NEW COACH	DEF	REC	DIV.	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY	STREAK	DIF.	OFFS	RNK	RNK
CLE	2008		4-12	1-5	1-7	3-5	2-5-1	4-4	L 6	-118		31	26
CLE	E. MANGINI	DEF	5-11	1-5	3-5	2-6	5-3	5-3	W 4	-130		32	31
DEN	2008		8-8	3-3	4-4	4-4	0-7-1	4-4	L 3	-78		2	29
DEN	J. McDANIELS	OFF	8-8	3-3	4-4	4-4	4-4	5-3	L 4	2		15	7
DET	2008		0-16	0-6	0-8	0-8	1-7	6-2	L 16	-249		30	32
DET	J. SCHWARTZ	DEF	2-14	0-6	2-6	0-8	3-5	1-7	L 6	-232		26	32
IND	2008		12-4	4-2	6-2	6-2	3-5	5-2-1	W 9	79		15	11
IND	J. CALDWELL	OFF	14-2	6-0	7-1	7-1	3-5	7-1	L 2	109	SUP	9	18
KC	2008		2-14	2-4	1-7	1-7	3-5	5-3	L 4	-149		24	31
KC	T. HALEY	OFF	4-12	2-4	1-7	3-5	2-6	5-3	W 1	-130		25	30
NYJ	2008		9-7	4-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	4-4	L 2	49		16	16
NYJ	R. RYAN	DEF	9-7	2-4	4-4	5-3	4-4	5-3	W 2	112	CONF	20	1
OAK	2008		5-11	2-4	2-6	3-5	2-6	5-3	W 2	-125		20	27
OAK	T. CABLE	OFF	5-11	2-4	2-6	3-5	4-4	4-4	L 2	-182		31	26
SFO	2008		7-9	3-3	4-4	3-5	3-4-1	4-4	W 2	-42		23	13
SFO	M. SINGLETARY	DEF	8-8	5-1	6-2	2-6	6-2	6-2	W 2	49		27	15
SEA	2008		4-12	3-3	2-6	2-6	3-4-1	4-4	L 1	-98		28	30
SEA	J. MORA	DEF	5-11	3-3	4-4	1-7	5-3	1-7	L 4	-110		21	24
STL	2008		2-14	0-6	1-7	1-7	3-5	3-5	L 10	-233		27	28
STL	S. SPAGNUOLO	DEF	1-15	0-6	0-8	1-7	2-6	4-4	L 8	-261		29	29
TB	2008		9-7	3-3	6-2	3-5	4-4	4-4	L 4	38		14	9
TB	R. MORRIS	DEF	3-13	1-5	1-7	2-6	1-7	5-3	L 1	-156		28	28

	2010	OFF		vs.	SU	SU	ATS	ATS	W/L	PT.	PLAY	OFF	DEF
TEAM	NEW COACH	DEF	REC	DIV.	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY	STREAK	DIF.	OFFS	RNK	RNK
BUF	2009		6-10	2-4	3-5	3-5	3-5	5-3	W 1	-68		30	19
BUF	C. GAILEY	OFF	4-12	1-5	2-6	2-6	3-4-1	5-3	L 2	-142		25	24
SEA	2009		5-11	3-3	4-4	1-7	5-3	1-7	L 4	-110		21	24
SEA	P. CARROLL	DEF	7-9	4-2	5-3	2-6	5-3	2-6	W 1	-97	DIV	28	27
WAS	2009		4-12	0-6	3-5	1-7	2-6	4-2-2	L 3	-70		22	10
WAS	M. SHANAHAN	OFF	6-10	2-4	2-6	4-4	5-2-1	5-3	L 1	-75		18	31

2011 OFF vs. SU SU ATS ATS W/L PT. SCH. OFF DEF
TEAM NEW COACH DEF REC DIV. HOME AWAY HOME AWAY STREAK DIF. STR. RNK RNK
CAR 2010 2-14 0-6 2-6 0-8 2-6 2-6 L 2 -212 26 32 18
CAR R. RIVERA DEF 1
CLE 2010 5-11 1-5 3-5 2-6 2-6 3-5 L 4 -61 10 29 22
CLE P. SHURMUR OFF 21
DAL 2010 6-10 3-3 2-6 4-4 3-5 3-5 W 1 -42 3 7 23
DAL J. GARRETT OFF 15
DEN 2010 4-12 1-5 3-5 1-7 4-4 2-6 L 1 -127 24 13 32
DEN J. FOX DEF 3
MIN 2010 6-10 1-5 4-4 2-6 3-5 3-5 L 1 -67 15 23 8
MIN L. FRAZIER DEF 12
OAK 2010 8-8 6-0 5-3 3-5 4-4 4-4 W 1 39 19 10 11
OAK H. JACKSON OFF 23
SFO 2010 6-10 4-2 5-3 1-7 5-3 2-6 W 1 -41 28 24 13
SFO JI. HARBAUGH OFF 30
TEN 2010 6-10 2-4 3-5 3-5 4-4 4-4 L 2 17 2 27 26
TEN M. MUNCHAK OFF 25

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