Week 10

Week ten was a disaster for me going 1-4 on my selections. I felt like I was in pretty good position and now I need several 5-0 weeks to crawl back in.  The Browns getting 9.5 on Thursday night started the downfall.

The Texans held on to win against Jacksonville, but the Packers get blasted by Tennessee, and my rational thinking that Cutler would improve for the Bears in his 2nd straight week back was wrong as they couldn't handle Tampa Bay.

The Steelers favored by 2.5 at home couldn't stop Dallas's offense and that two point conversion they kept missing, at least 3 of them might have been the difference had they made them or kicked the extra points. It was just a bad group of teams to play this week.

TEAM SELECTED
MIN 751L
SD 599W
TEN 562L
NE 506W
MIA 489W
OAK 413W
SEA 412W
WAS 349L
DEN 343W
PHI 324W
BAL 313L
KC 302L
NO 291W
LA 287L
ARI 286L
BUF 278L
NYJ 268W
SF 263L
JAX 260L
DET 236W
NYG 216W
PIT 210L
CLE 209L
ATL 206L
TB 199W
CIN 169W
IND 158W
HOU 112L
GB 105W
CHI 89L
DAL 0
CAR 0

This was the first week that most of the tools kicked in for the power ratings. Week 4 had 4 spread range dogs and two teams due down. Cincinnati and Chicago were possibly due up, with Atlanta possibly due down. I also had Denver possibly due down playing Tampa Bay in a possibly due up situation .

  I wanted at least three underdogs this week and I really liked Atlanta at home as a dog, but threw them out on the spread range against me. Carolina had given them their worst loss last year.  

I went with Jacksonville+2.5 as they were the more desperate team for a win and my power ratings agreed. Washington's offense was just waiting to break out and I figured after the Giant win, there was no way they would let Cleveland close. They did let them a little closer than I would have liked, but got the job done.

The Jets+2.5 pick was more on the anticipation that Russell Wilson wasn't 100% and the Jets were coming off a rout loss. Wilson looked great and the Jets offense doesn't look so great. My blood pressure took off Saturday morning and I failed to adjust my number back for Wilson and it cost me.

Houston -5 looked like an obvious play as they had averaged beating Tennessee by 21 points the two times they met last year and the power rating agreed.

Tampa Bay+3  was my last pick. They were a spread range dog at home and playing possibly due up while Denver was possibly due down. The kicker was the line looked like a trap as my numbers had Denver by 11.5. I got trapped on that one.

The Bills were a play and really should have had them in, instead of Tampa Bay. I was also considering Atlanta as my best bet and wound up throwing them out in a due down situation.

This should have been a 5-0 week instead of 3-2.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2016
1 PANTHERS* 5:25 PM 2 SAINTS +3.5
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2016
3 COLTS* 10:00 AM 4 TITANS +3
5 LIONS* 10:00 AM 6 JAGUARS +6.5
7 CHIEFS* 10:00 AM 8 BUCCANEERS +7.5
9 GIANTS* 10:00 AM 10 BEARS +7.5
11 CARDINALS 10:00 AM 12 VIKINGS* PK
13 BENGALS* 10:00 AM 14 BILLS +2.5
15 COWBOYS* 10:00 AM 16 RAVENS +7
17 STEELERS 10:00 AM 18 BROWNS* +8
19 DOLPHINS 1:05 PM 20 RAMS* +2.5
21 PATRIOTS 1:25 PM 22 49ERS* +13
23 SEAHAWKS* 1:25 PM 24 EAGLES +6.5
25REDSKINS* 5:30 PM 26 PACKERS +2.5
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2016
27 RAIDERS 5:30 PM 28 TEXANS +5.5

Week 9

Week 12

I wanted to maintain some balance with this weeks picks, but I kept coming up with a lot of favorites and wound up with 4 favorites and a dog which usually will have at least one loss.

So far everything has started off on the right foot at the half of the first round of games. My first play was Tennessee-4.5 as the Bears are down to their third string QB and missing some key playmakers.

My second selection is the Bills. The Jaguars have been playing tough the last few weeks, but the Bills need this one to have a chance at a wild card. The Bills will have McCoy and Watkins on the field for the first time this season.

 My third choice was Baltimore which always plays tough at home. The Bengals come in with a losing record and are just about out of any chance to make the playoffs and down a running back.

My 4th choice was Atlanta-4. The Cardinals have been disappointing this year as they just don't seem to have that fire they had last season. They couldn't knock off Carolina which blew them out in the playoffs last year.

My 5th selection is Kansas City+3.5. I have this game falling from 1-3 points and getting the extra half point makes me feel like I have better than a 70% chance of catching this one. 


2016 Westgate SuperContest Week 13 Picks

By # of Teams Selected

DET 564
ATL 516
NYG 515
GB 447
SEA 417
WAS 408
BUF 396
BAL 381
OAK 379
KC 338
CIN 334
TB 325
DEN 302
SF 294
JAX 290
ARI 289
SD 269
MIA 267
NO 259
IND 240
LA 234
PIT 226
DAL 225L
NYJ 196
PHI 179
CHI 173
HOU 165
CAR 151
NE 145
MIN 121W
CLE 0
TEN 0

Week 5

This week had several tools to use with the power ratings. My biggest problem this week was finding ratings that agreed the spread range and system plays. My first move was a risky one taking the Browns+10.5. My gut didn't feel it since Brady was coming back and the Patriots were off a loss. My gut and my power ratings were right on this one, but I still think if the QB had not been knocked out of the game, they might of caught the backdoor.

Detroit was a play against Philadelphia in a double due down move and a spread range dog and it paid off. I'm still waiting on the Rams and the Chargers. The Chargers were my best bet getting 3.5 at Oakland.  These two teams were on opposite ends of the spectrum with Oakland winning the close games and the Chargers losing them. The Charger game fell like I expected with the Raiders winning by a field goal.

The Rams were a play against Buffalo as the Bills were due down situation. The Rams struggled in this one failing to drive for the tying score.

The Packers are a power rating play and had a week off while New York is on a short week. The Packers were terrible in the red zone,  settling  for 3 field goals that kept the Giants in the game. Giants get a late score with 3 minutes left to cut the margin to 7 and Rodgers and company run out the clock.

Summary was I knew I took a chance on Cleveland, but the Rams and Packers really put a damper on the week.

DEN 695L
PIT 604L
NO 575W
CAR 525P
PHI 474L
KC 422L
TEN 422L
DAL 406W
CLE 404L
NYG 371W
MIN 358L
DET 351W
OAK 334W
MIA 332W
SD 329W
IND 319W
NYJ 310L
LA 306P
SEA 296L
SF 253L
BUF 236W
JAX 206W
BAL 193W
GB 176L
ATL 163W
TB 100L
CHI 0
CIN 0
ARI 0
NE 0
WAS 0
HOU 0

I had  a strong power rating play on Miami to start off and really felt good about their chances as I made them my best bet. Cleveland had several indicators to play , but just couldn't take 7.5 against the Cowboys and when I saw the contest line at 7, I laid off. I had a due up play on the 49ers at home and off the bye week and the Saints were coming off a big win against Seattle which looked worth taking a chance on so I played the 49ers+3.5

The Rams were also off the bye, and you never know which team is going to show up but my power ratings indicated that they could cover 3 so I added the Rams.

San Diego was a power rating play and this was a long trip for Tennessee with the Chargers laying less than a touchdown. The Chargers are a lot better than their record indicates so they became my 4th play.

My last play is on Denver at a pick. Denver has a huge winning streak at Oakland and power ratings comply so this looks like a strong play.

Apparently 695 people in the contest think so too and that number one pick was faltering the first half of the season, so maybe it's due to turn around. Well landing on the top pick is still not a good sign, hopefully week 10 will keep me off of it.

Week 12 SuperContest Picks

By # of Teams Selected

TEN 514W
ATL 480W
WAS 405W
BAL 387W
KC 380W
OAK 379L
SD 356W
CAR 347W
NYG 344W
SEA 337L
HOU 333L
NO 319W
PIT 306W
PHI 303L
NE 288L
ARI 280L
TB 272W
DET 265W
NYJ 264W
DEN 260L
MIN 235L
BUF 221L
CLE 220L
MIA 208L
GB 204W
SF 198W
CIN 197L
LA 181L
JAX 178W
DAL 153L
CHI 127L
IND 94L

Week 3 Lines/Odds

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS

Texans -1 vs. PATRIOTS
BENGALS -3.5 vs. Broncos
TITANS -1.5 vs. Raiders
Cardinals -4 vs. BILLS
Ravens E vs. JAGUARS
DOLPHINS -9.5 vs. Browns
NY GIANTS -4.5 vs. Redskins
PACKERS -7.5 vs. Lions
PANTHERS -7 vs. Vikings
SEAHAWKS -9.5 vs. 49ers
BUCCANEERS -5.5 vs. Rams
Steelers -3.5 vs. EAGLES
CHIEFS -3 vs. NY Jets
COLTS -3 vs. Chargers
COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Bears
SAINTS -3 vs. Falcons

Week 13 SuperContest Lines

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Cowboys -3 vs. VIKINGS
Broncos -4 vs. JAGUARS
FALCONS -4 vs. Chiefs
PACKERS -6.5 vs. Texans
Eagles E vs. BENGALS
SAINTS -6 vs. Lions
BEARS -1 vs. 49ers
PATRIOTS -13.5 vs. Rams
RAVENS -3 vs. Dolphins
RAIDERS -3 vs. Bills
CHARGERS -3.5 vs. Buccaneers
CARDINALS -2.5 vs. Redskins
STEELERS -6.5 vs. NY Giants
SEAHAWKS -6.5 vs. Panthers
Colts -2 vs. NY JETS

I'm a little more relaxed this week as I know I need 4-1 or better to get back in this thing. I didn't start off good by losing Tennessee+3 in a revenge matchup. The Bills were my best bet this week and held on 16-12 after losing McCoy to injury.

Minnesota holds on as a pick to get me to 2-1. I have the Packers which is just starting and the Texans on Monday night in Mexico City. Green Bay get Clay Matthews back which should pick up the defense this week. I took losses on Green Bay which still looks bad and Houston. I felt a little ripped off on that game with the officials as they called back a good touchdown and seemed to be biased. The call on third and one late in the game looked like a first down, but the coach didn't throw the red flag. The 4th down attempt wasn't as good of a spot, but still looked like he may have had it.  He should have kicked the FG. Anyway, can't change it now. This has been one of the worst officiating seasons I can remember and the impact on the game's outcome has come into play a bunch.

By # of Teams Selected

DET 465W
ARI 452L
NYG 428L
HOU 419W
BAL 411W
NYJ 403W
SD 399W
TB 369W
MIN 368W
JAX 342W
NO 334L
PIT 322W
WAS 322L
OAK 311W
CLE 300L
GB 294L
CIN 292L
CHI 289L
KC 268L
TEN 265L
ATL 232L
DAL 232W
MIA 216W
IND 193L
STL 192L
BUF 181L
CAR 180L
SF 173W
NE 169W
SEA 165L
DEN 141W
PHI 133W

TEAM SELECTED
BAL 596L
MIA 516
TEN 509L
MIN 499W
TB 434W
OAK 430
SEA 412
WAS 405
BUF 394W
PIT 392W
GB 363
ARI 333L
LA 331
JAX 330L
DAL 315W
PHI 300
CIN 292L
CHI 283W
DET 282W
IND 280W
NE 277
NYG 227L
HOU 201
SF 187
CLE 172L
NO 155W
KC 131L
CAR 74W
DEN 0
SD 0
ATL 0
NYJ 0

2016 Westgate SuperContest Week 4 Odds/Lines

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

BENGALS -7.5 vs. Dolphins
Colts -2.5 vs. JAGUARS
REDSKINS -7.5 vs. Browns
PATRIOTS -5.5 vs. Bills
Seahawks -2.5 vs. NY JETS
Panthers -3 vs. FALCONS
Lions -3 vs. BEARS
TEXANS -5 vs. Titans
RAVENS -3.5 vs. Raiders
Broncos -3 vs. BUCCANEERS
Cowboys -2.5 vs. 49ERS
CHARGERS -4 vs. Saints
CARDINALS -8 vs. Rams
STEELERS -5.5 vs. Chiefs
VIKINGS -4.5 vs. NY Giants

Week 4

Week 11

2016 Westgate SuperContest Week 4 Picks

By # of Teams Picked

NYJ 661L
DEN 592W
CAR 541L
NE 502L
SF 460L
OAK 440W
DET 434L
TB 396L
PIT 381W
MIN 372W
CLE 362L
NYG 353L
ARI 292L
JAX 289W
HOU 279W
DAL 277W
BAL 274L
KC 270L
TEN 246L
ATL 230W
IND 215L
NO 209W
CHI 204W
SD 191L
LA 155W
WAS 150W
BUF 142W
SEA 140W
MIA 98L
CIN 95W
PHI 0
GB 0

The Westgate Super Contest costs $1500.00 to enter. They pay the top 50 places. I'm not sure how many entered this season yet, but last season there were 1746 entries, so you can see that there is a lot of cash involved. This is the best of the best handicappers and each win is critical since you only get 5 plays a week.

Week 8

I started off with Houston-2.5 at home as my best bet. I knew Detroit should have lost last week and with the Texans coming off a Monday night whipping would be primed to take this one.

My second pick was the Raiders+1.5 and it got a little hairy going into overtime. They set the record for penalties in this game or they might of won this hands down without the overtime, but they pulled it out and gave my a nice start heading into the next three games.

The Chiefs-2.5 looked like a bargain against the Colts, but you never know about Luck as he can keep a game close. This was one of the easier wins on the day.


My fourth choice was the Panthers-3. They went up big early and never were challenged for the win. I had some concern as I knew Arizona was coming off that tie with Seattle and wanted some revenge for the playoff beating they got last season, but the Panthers were in desperation mode with an extra week to prepare.

My fifth choice was Philadelphia+4.5 and they had a nice lead only to blow it in overtime ruining a possible perfect week. I'll still take 4-1, but I still have some major ground to make up for week 9.

Week 12 SuperContest Odds

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

LIONS -2.5 vs. Vikings
COWBOYS -7 vs. Redskins
Steelers -8 vs. COLTS
Chargers -1.5 vs. TEXANS
Titans -4.5 vs. BEARS
BILLS -7.5 vs. Jaguars
RAVENS -4 vs. Bengals
FALCONS -4 vs. Cardinals
DOLPHINS -7.5 vs. 49ers
SAINTS -7 vs. Rams
NY Giants -7 vs. Browns
Seahawks -6 vs. BUCCANEERS
RAIDERS -3 vs. Panthers
BRONCOS -3.5 vs. Chiefs
Patriots -8 vs. NY JETS
Eagles -4 vs. Packers

TEAM SELECTED
NE 742W
SD 631L
OAK 627W
ATL 463L
NO 460W
PHI 434L
KC 402W
MIN 398L
CAR 374W
CIN 370L
DAL 360W
IND 359L
ARI 330L
GB 327W
DET 326L
HOU 326W
CLE 321P
CHI 304W
SEA 284L
TB 276L
WAS 260W
BUF 241L
NYJ 232P
DEN 163W
TEN 98W
JAX 72L

Week 6

This week had several tools to work with which gave me more teams than I needed and so I had to work a process of elimination to get to five teams. My best bet was Kansas City as they were coming off an embarrassing loss and bye week facing the Raiders on the road. The Raiders had been pulling out late wins and was slightly over valued at this point.

My second selection was Miami using the 7.5 point dog at home system, plus the spread range dog and the Steelers were due down. The fact that Roethlisberger got knocked out of the game made this an easier win than anticipated.

My third choice was the Rams getting 3.5 points. The Lions had played to one score in every game and this one. I felt the Rams should have won this outright, but a late turnover sealed their fate, but they still covered.

My 4th choice was the Saints. I threw out San Francisco at the last minute as the odds had gone up on Buffalo. The Saints play was based on the bad play of Carolina  and the Saints coming off a bye and a pretty good win at San Diego two weeks before. It turned into a sweat late, but Brees is one of the best at scoring in the last minute.

My 5th choice was Houston-3 and I had to throw out Cincinnati+8.5 against New England. This looked like a mistake early, but Brady just keeps on plowing through these teams. I don't think I can wager against the Patriots unless I'm getting double digits. Houston looked like crap until the 4th quarter. I figured I was going to lose that one, but they did come back and tie it up to go into overtime and win by 3 for the push.

I am not even looking at the standings in the contest at this time as I have major ground to make up with my 1-4 and 2-5 weeks.



Week 8 SuperContest Odds

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

TITANS -3 vs. Jaguars
Bengals -3 vs. REDSKINS
FALCONS -3 vs. Packers
TEXANS -2.5 vs. Lions
Seahawks -2.5 vs. SAINTS
Patriots -6.5 vs BILLS
NY Jets -3 vs. BROWNS
BUCCANEERS -1.5 vs. Raiders
Chiefs -2.5 vs. COLTS
BRONCOS -5.5 vs. Chargers
PANTHERS -3 vs. Cardinals
COWBOYS -4.5 vs. Eagles
Vikings -6 vs. BEARS

Las Vegas Linemaker.Com

Week 3

My week started all wrong by playing Houston on Thursday and turning in the remainder of my picks earlier than I wanted too.  Sunday started ok with the Broncos, but Miami couldn't hold a 14 point lead. One thing that is sticking out is how well the young quarterbacks are playing. Pittsburgh just self-destructed on both sides of the ball and the Eagles look like world beaters.

I can't remember when Pittsburgh was dominated in the way they were today. I considered the Cardinals, but it wouldn't have done any better as they were waxed by Buffalo and 4 starters short. San Diego was my last hope to ease the pain, but fumbled away a 22-20 lead with less than a minute left.

This was a disastrous week for the team selections I had. My power ratings did what I call regression, which usually happens in week four or five. I had a  team due down matched with a possible due down, but the team due down won that one. I had a spread range dog, but the QB was out and they didn't cover anyway.

I had two spread range favorites that usually don't do well and they both covered. The thing you have to tell yourself is that it's still early and these teams are still putting the pieces together. After week four we will see several suspended players back and the chemistry will change again.

The advantage now is that we know what most teams can or can't do. This week has shown the most improvement from a week to week basis and three of the five, 0-2 teams, were able to pull off a win. Desperation has to be setting in for the Bears and Jaguars as they meet their first division opponents this week.

Bad weeks like this are good to analyze what you could have done different, but you can't dwell on it.  You also don't want to listen much to programs that sensationalize these team's wins as it can throw off your thinking for the following week.

Week 2

This week makes me over think my plays. Last season I went 2-3 in week two. So I tried not to shy away from underdogs, but did it again. I didn't want to go against my power ratings , but I found myself thinking that Washington wouldn't lose two in a row after an embarrassing defeat on Monday night. They did.


Cleveland was a strong play for me, but had already submitted the play at +6.5 and then the news came out about Baltimore's assistant coach dying and I would have substituted New England in that case.


Detroit had a couple of touchdowns called back that would have made a difference. I didn't like Tennessee because of the erratic play of the QB and the 3 turnovers last week sold me on Detroit.

Arizona was my best bet as Arians bounces back strong after a loss and this wasn't a short trip for Tampa Bay.


Denver was more of a play against Indianapolis as they would be revenge minded and the Colts are still beat up in the secondary.


I threw out a couple of winners in Carolina, New England, and Pittsburgh, but hindsight is 20/20. I eliminated Carolina because of the 13 point spread. I was a little worried about a flat spot for New England and the Steelers having a short week, AKA Washington! I wound up 3-2 and though I'm kind of disappointed that I went against my own power ratings on those two losses, I'm actually a half a game better than I was in week two last season.

My lesson for week two is not to read too much into technical trends because the season is early and to go with your bread and butter, (power ratings ), and ignore some of these short weeks (1-1) until about week 4 or so.



2016 Westgate SuperContest Week 7 Lines and Odds

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

PACKERS -7.5 vs. Bears
NY Giants -3 vs. RAMS
Vikings -2.5 vs. EAGLES
CHIEFS -6.5 vs. Saints
LIONS -1.5 vs. Redskins
BENGALS -10 vs. Browns
Bills -3 vs. DOLPHINS
JAGUARS -1 vs. Raiders
TITANS -2.5 vs. Colts
NY JETS E vs. Ravens
FALCONS -6.5 vs. Chargers
Buccaneers -2 vs. 49ERS
Patriots -7 vs. STEELERS
CARDINALS -1.5 vs. Seahawks
BRONCOS -7.5 vs. Texans

Week 10 SuperContest Picks

By # of Teams Selected

PIT 671L
NO 550L
ATL 538L
GB 521L
CAR 417L
SD 412L
PHI 408W
JAX 406L
CIN 376L
WAS 374W
SEA 373W
DAL 356W
NE 353L
MIN 321L
CHI 320L
TB 310W
HOU 304W
KC 282W
DEN 272W
ARI 259L
NYJ 249L
NYG 240W
MIA 226W
CLE 169L
TEN 164W
LA 134W
SF 101W
BAL 39W
BUF 0
IND 0
DET 0
OAK 0

Week One

 The build up to the start of the season always seems to get your blood pumping. I worked all summer and preseason to set my starting power ratings. I waited to here the Friday injury report and the only thing new at the time was an OL suspension on Buffalo, which was one of the teams I was considering. I threw Buffalo out and now had a matter of hours to pick my replacement. I was already set on Detroit, N.Y. Jets, New England, and San Francisco.


  I liked Tennessee with the state that Minnesota was in and I was trying to stay away from Favorites, which made me throw out Houston and Kansas City.

Seattle-10.5 was laying a ridiculous number for week one. I liked Washington getting points at home, but considering the QB situation for the Vikings I stayed with Tennessee giving me 5 underdogs for week one.


The morning venue produced a 1-1 record. Tennessee had the game in hand until Mariota pitched the ball to Minnesota, which took it to the house. Then Mariota is deep in his own territory and does it again with Minnesota taking it to the house. That 14 points doomed the Titans from any chance to cover.

The Jets were a sweat, but got the cover. That evening I played Detroit+3.5 which for the most part was never in danger of not covering and got the outright win bringing my record to 2-1.


I was really sweating New England+6 as the line had went up to +9.5. I felt like Belichick had all summer to game plan for this one and even though there would be a drop off of talent without Brady, I wasn't too concerned. News comes out that Gronkowski will be out and then I was concerned and that's where the line increased. I was locked in at +6 in the contest. New England gets the upset and I'm 3-1 going into Monday night.


San Francisco shut out the Rams for the easiest win of the week. The Rams are not settled at QB, but what was really surprising was the 49ers defense shutting down Gurley. I'm happy to be heading into week 2 at 4-1.


KC 704W
SEA 450L
GB 448L
HOU 424P
PHI 410L
ATL 404W
PIT 398L
NO 387W
LA 384W
WAS 365W
NYG 355W
JAX 348W
MIA 345W
NE 343W
OAK 330L
DAL 329W
CIN 312L
BUF 296W
BAL 245L
NYJ 239L
SF 234L
CLE 225W
TEN 196L
IND 179P
CHI 163L
DET 161L
DEN 145L
CAR 143L
ARI 130W
SD 123W
TB 0
MIN 0

Week 3 Picks

By # of Teams Picked

PIT 663L
ARI 536L
TB 502L
JAX 477L
SD 418L
MIA 395L
DEN 391W
WAS 383W
DET 377W
OAK 363W
NO 329L
CIN 322L
NYJ 319L
CHI 294L
BUF 281W
TEN 281L
CAR 269L
MIN 263W
SF 251L
IND 227W
BAL 219W
KC 212W
PHI 203W
NYG 189L
DAL 182W
SEA 161W
HOU 150L
GB 146L
LA 145W
NE 126W
ATL 107W
CLE 8W

Week 9 Westgate Contest Lines

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Falcons -4 vs. BUCCANEERS
CHIEFS -7 vs. Jaguars
VIKINGS -5.5 vs. Lions
NY GIANTS -2.5 vs. Eagles
Cowboys -7 vs. BROWNS
DOLPHINS -3.5 vs. NY Jets
Steelers E vs. RAVENS
Saints -3.5
vs. 49ERS
Panthers -3 vs. RAMS
PACKERS -7.5 vs. Colts
CHARGERS -5 vs. Titans
Broncos E vs. RAIDERS
SEAHAWKS -6.5 vs. Bills

Westgate Super Contest

Week 6 Odds

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Broncos -3 vs. CHARGERS
PATRIOTS -8.5 vs. Bengals
NY GIANTS -3 vs. Ravens
Panthers -3 vs. SAINTS
Steelers -7.5 vs. DOLPHINS
BEARS -2.5 vs. Jaguars
BILLS -7.5 vs. 49ers
LIONS -3.5 vs. Rams
TITANS -7 vs. Browns
Eagles -2.5 vs. REDSKINS
Chiefs E vs. RAIDERS
SEAHAWKS -6.5 vs. Falcons
PACKERS -4.5 vs. Cowboys
TEXANS -3 vs. Colts
CARDINALS -7.5
vs. NY Jets

By # of Teams Selected

SEA 541L
GB 507L
JAX 426L
KC 419L
CIN 401L
CAR 397W
TEN 395W
CLE 350W
TB 332L
MIA 329L
WAS 329L
MIN 319W
HOU 304W
IND 303L
CHI 296L
OAK 284L
DEN 277W
NYG 277L
ATL 258W
PHI 252W
NE 242W
SD 239W
AZ 229W
NO 224W
PIT 222W
BAL 208L
DAL 207W
DET 191L
SF 144L
NYJ 141W
LA 133W
BUF 94L

TEAM SELECTED
CIN 841L
PHI 568L
MIN 508W
PIT 494W
NYG 476W
DET 443W
SD 441W
BUF 430W
WAS 397W
DEN 383L
NE 368W
OAK 334L
TEN 332W
CHI 331L
LA 325L
ATL 314W
CLE 282L
HOU 273L
BAL 240L
TB 224W
NYJ 221L
DAL 215W
IND 203W
GB 143L
MIA 131L
ARI 130W
CAR 95L
SF 78L

The anticipation of improvement from teams like Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Oakland,and Cleveland.  Jacksonville has been in the top ten contest bets for two consecutive weeks. Most bettors don't realize that even with all the right players it still takes time to gel into that most improved team.

Over reaction is another thing to look for early on teams such as Minnesota that lost their QB early and teams that looked really bad or really good in week one.

Week 7

I am starting to feel the pressure of trying to go 5-0 to make up for a couple of lackluster weeks. I tried to put in more underdogs than favorites this week. I started with the Rams+3, but the QB play is so inconsistent that any chance to win this went out the window with Keenum. Even Gurley has not been up to par this year running the ball and this game was a must have for the Rams.

The Redskins+1.5 looked solid, but again, inconsistent QB play plagued me again plus the defense failed to protect the lead late in the game.

My worst play this week was on the Jaguars-1. I hadn't watched a game since they played Green Bay, but after seeing this team in total disarray I don't think they will win another game. Bortles has totally regressed from week one.

The Jets-Pk was some saving grace as they bounced back and won after an embarrassing loss the week before.

The Broncos-7.5 were my best bet and they came through to prevent a 1-4 week.  I feel like the pressure is off after this as it will take me several 4-1 and 5-0 weeks to climb back in. There is still time so I'm not stressing at this point in the season.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2016
1 CARDINALS 5:25 PM 2 49ERS* +3.5
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2016
3 VIKINGS* 10:00 AM 4 TEXANS +6.5
5 DOLPHINS* 10:00 AM 6 TITANS +3.5
7 PATRIOTS 10:00 AM 8 BROWNS* +10.5
9 STEELERS* 10:00 AM 10 JETS +7
11 RAVENS* 10:00 AM 12 REDSKINS +4
13 EAGLES 10:00 AM 14 LIONS* +3
15 COLTS* 10:00 AM 16 BEARS +4.5
17 BRONCOS* 1:05 PM 18 FALCONS +5.5
19 RAMS* 1:25 PM 20 BILLS +2
21 RAIDERS* 1:25 PM 22 CHARGERS +3.5
23 BENGALS 1:25 PM 24 COWBOYS* +1
25 PACKERS* 5:30 PM 26 GIANTS +7.5
MONDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2016
27 PANTHERS* 5:30 PM 28 BUCCANEERS +6.5

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2016
1 RAVENS* 5:25 PM 2 BROWNS +9.5
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2016
3 TEXANS 10:00 AM 4 JAGUARS* +1.5
5 PANTHERS* 10:00 AM 6 CHIEFS +3
7 SAINTS* 10:00 AM 8 BRONCOS +2.5
9 JETS* 10:00 AM 10 RAMS +1.5
11 FALCONS 10:00 AM 12 EAGLES* PK
13 REDSKINS* 10:00 AM 14 VIKINGS +3
15 PACKERS 10:00 AM 16 TITANS* +2.5
17 BEARS 10:00 AM 18 BUCCANEERS* PK
19 CHARGERS* 1:05 PM 20 DOLPHINS +4
21 CARDINALS* 1:25 PM 22 49ERS +13.5
23 STEELERS* 1:25 PM 24 COWBOYS +2.5
25 PATRIOTS* 5:30 PM 26 SEAHAWKS +7.5
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2016
27 GIANTS* 5:30 PM 28 BENGALS +2

Week 13

Week 2 Lines/Odds

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

NY Jets -1 vs. BILLS
LIONS -6 vs. Titans
TEXANS -3 vs. Chiefs
PATRIOTS -6.5 vs. Dolphins
Ravens -6.5 vs. BROWNS
STEELERS -3.5 vs. Bengals
REDSKINS -2.5 vs. Cowboys
NY GIANTS -4.5 vs. Saints
PANTHERS -13.5 vs. 49ers
CARDINALS -7 vs. Buccaneers
Seahawks -4.5 vs. RAMS
BRONCOS -6 vs. Colts
RAIDERS -5 vs. Falcons
CHARGERS -3 vs. Jaguars
Packers -2.5 vs. VIKINGS
BEARS -3.5 vs. Eagles

I'm going to do a recap of each week of what my thoughts were going into the week and my results. The lines I had to bet into and percentage of contest picks on each game will follow.

2016 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest Week 1 Contest Odds

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Panthers -3 vs. BRONCOS
FALCONS -2.5 vs. Buccaneers
Vikings -1.5 vs. TITANS
EAGLES -4 vs. Browns
Bengals -2.5 vs. NY JETS
SAINTS -1.5 vs. Raiders
CHIEFS -6.5 vs. Chargers
RAVENS -3 vs. Bills
TEXANS -6 vs. Bears
Packers -5.5 vs. JAGUARS
SEAHAWKS -10.5 vs. Dolphins
NY Giants -1.5 vs. COWBOYS
COLTS -3.5 vs. Lions
CARDINALS -6 vs. Patriots
Steelers -3 vs. REDSKINS
Rams -2.5 vs. 49ERS